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Ticker:
Put Wall (Support) Call Wall (Resistance) Accel (short ฮณ) Spot price Gamma flip
VOLATILITY REGIME
Transitioning
Mixed signals near the gamma flip โ€” small moves can swing the regime.
AmplifyingDamping
CLOSEST LEVELS (SUPPORT & RESISTANCE)
๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ Put Wall @ $124.00SUPPORT
1.3% below spot โ€” $14.21K gamma
โšก Accel Level @ $110.00SHORT ฮณ
12.4% below spot
๐Ÿš€ Call Wall @ $155.00RESISTANCE
23.4% above spot โ€” $79.25K gamma
๐ŸŸฃ Gamma Flip @ $188.51
50.1% from spot
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โ€”
๐Ÿ” Stock Ticker Audit:
Quick select:
Nebius Q2 2026 Earnings
Nebius Group N.V. โ€ข Reported Aug 12, 2026 โ€ข The Nvidia-backed "neocloud"
โ–ฒ +31% on the day
$252.90 vs $193.23 prior close โ€ข +141% YTD
Verdict: blowout quarter, historic growth rate. Revenue up 454% to $582M, ARR hit $3.0B, and adjusted EBITDA turned solidly positive at a 40.6% margin. Four AI cloud contracts averaging $1B+ each were signed in the quarter. The whole debate now is capital intensity: ~$5.7B of capex in one quarter against ~$8B of cash.
REVENUE
$582M BEAT
+454% YoY โ€ข +46% sequentially
ARR (RUN-RATE)
$3.0B
+56% from Q1 alone
ADJ. EBITDA
$236M
40.6% margin โ€” now positive
Q2 CAPEX
$5.7B
H1 >$8.1B โ€ข $20โ€“25B annual target
Results breakdown
METRIC Q2 2026 CHANGE NOTE
Group revenue $582.3M +454% YoY Beat Street estimates; +46% quarter over quarter
Nebius AI Cloud (core) $575M +514% YoY 98% of group revenue โ€” this is the whole story
Adjusted EBITDA $236.2M 40.6% margin AI Cloud segment margin near 50%
Adjusted net loss -$33.2M Narrowing But GAAP loss from continuing ops widened to ~$190M
Contracted power target 5 GW Raised Capacity, not demand, is now the binding constraint
Key metrics for the audience
ARR EXITING Q2
$3.0B
Target: $7โ€“9B by year-end
$1B+ CONTRACTS SIGNED
4 deals
In Q2 alone, averaging >$1B each
TOTAL CONTRACT VALUE
~4x Q1
New-customer TCV up >9x
REPORTED BACKLOG
~$40B
Anchored by Microsoft & Meta deals
CASH ON HAND
~$8B
Now in a net debt position
H1 2026 CAPEX
$8.1B+
>$20B annualized run-rate
GAAP NET LOSS
-$190M
Widened - expenses tripled to $758M
PRICE / SALES
~88x
Market cap ~$65B on $1.36B TTM revenue
BUYBACK / DIVIDEND
None
Every dollar goes into the buildout
NOTABLE SHORT
M. Burry
Short position may have fueled the squeeze
OTHER SEGMENTS
TripleTen, Avride
Edtech + autonomous driving โ€” small today
52-WEEK RANGE
$62 โ€“ $300
Extreme volatility both directions
The good vs. the bad
โœ“ The Good
  • โœ“
    Growth almost nobody can match โ€” 454% group revenue growth and 514% in AI Cloud, plus 46% sequentially. ARR jumped 56% in a single quarter to $3.0B.
  • โœ“
    Profitability inflection โ€” adjusted EBITDA positive at $236M and a 40.6% margin, with AI Cloud near 50%. This is no longer a pure cash-burn story on the operating line.
  • โœ“
    Demand is contracted, not hoped for โ€” four $1B+ deals in the quarter, TCV up ~4x, new-customer TCV up 9x, and roughly $40B of backlog anchored by Microsoft and Meta.
  • โœ“
    Guidance reaffirmed with room โ€” FY26 targets of $7โ€“9B ARR, $3โ€“3.4B revenue and ~40% EBITDA margin intact, and contracted power raised to 5 GW.
  • โœ“
    Full-stack differentiation โ€” compute plus storage, orchestration, and engineering support, not bare-metal GPU rental โ€” management's answer to hyperscalers building in-house.
โœ— The Bad
  • โœ—
    Capex is enormous โ€” $5.7B in one quarter, $8.1B in H1, on a $20โ€“25B annual trajectory against roughly $8B of cash. Nebius has flipped to a net-debt position.
  • โœ—
    Funding risk is real โ€” sustaining that buildout means debt, equipment financing, or equity raises; each carries interest cost or dilution.
  • โœ—
    GAAP losses widened โ€” net loss from continuing operations grew to ~$190M as expenses tripled to $758M on depreciation, energy, and pre-build go-to-market spend.
  • โœ—
    Execution is back-half loaded โ€” 2026 capacity additions depend on data-center completions, grid interconnects, and Nvidia delivery. Any slip means costs accrue while revenue waits.
  • โœ—
    ~88x sales with a squeeze component โ€” part of today's move is mechanical short covering; when that exhausts, the multiple has to be defended by execution.
Guidance (FY2026 โ€” reaffirmed)
FULL-YEAR 2026 | TARGET
ARR exiting the year$7B โ€“ $9B
Group revenue$3.0B โ€“ $3.4B
Group adj. EBITDA margin~40%
BUILDOUT | PLAN
Contracted power5 GW target (raised)
Capex trajectory$20B โ€“ $25B annualized
Capacity timingHeavily back-half weighted
Going forward: three scenarios & price ranges
CURRENT PRICE
$252.90
+30.9% on the day โ€ข 52-wk range $62โ€“$300
STREET CONSENSUS TARGET
$253
18 analysts โ€ข "Buy" โ€ข stock just caught up to it
TARGET RANGE
up to $410
Goldman $286 (Street-high pre-print); some to $410
BULL CASE
$286 โ€“ $410
Goldman Sachs $286 with a Buy; the most bullish published objectives reach $410
Backlog converts on schedule. ARR marches from $3B toward the $7โ€“9B target, capacity comes online in H2, and ~$40B of Microsoft/Meta backlog turns capex into recurring revenue at ~50% AI Cloud margins.

If the 5 GW power target lands, Nebius is one of a handful of firms that can physically serve frontier AI demand.
NEUTRAL CASE
$200 โ€“ $255
Consensus target $253 โ€” the stock has essentially reached it after today's +31% move
Priced for the plan. Execution is superb, but at ~88x sales the stock now sits right at the average analyst target; further upside requires targets to move again.

Expect chop as the market watches quarterly capex-to-revenue conversion. Pullbacks toward the 52-week midpoint have been bought all year.
BEAR CASE
$120 โ€“ $190
A return toward pre-earnings ($193) or the mid-range of a $62โ€“$300 52-week band if AI sentiment cools
The cash-flow math breaks. A $20B+ capex run-rate on ~$8B of cash means any data-center, grid, or Nvidia delivery delay leaves fixed costs accruing without the revenue.

Widening GAAP losses, dilution or high-yield debt, and a squeeze-driven rally that fades leave this the most volatile way to own AI infrastructure.
๐Ÿ”

Financial & Valuation Anomaly Radar

Automated Financial Statement & Market Dynamics Discrepancy Detector
7 ANOMALIES IDENTIFIED & AUDITED
1. Severe Capex vs. Cash Runway Deficit (Liquidity Anomaly)
๐Ÿ”ด CRITICAL RISK
Q2 Capex: $5.7B Cash on Hand: ~$8.0B Annualized Capex: $20Bโ€“$25B Implied Runway: < 4.5 Months
Discrepancy Audit: Single-quarter Capex ($5.7B) represents 71.25% of total cash reserves ($8B). At this burn velocity, cash runway is under 4.5 months without external financing. Nebius has officially flipped to a net-debt position and must execute capital raises, equipment loans, or high-yield debt, triggering immediate dilution or interest expense risks.
2. Non-GAAP EBITDA vs. GAAP Net Loss Divergence ($426.2M Profitability Gap)
๐ŸŸ  HIGH RISK
Adj EBITDA: +$236.2M (40.6%) GAAP Net Loss: -$190.0M Operating Expenses: $758M (3x YoY)
Discrepancy Audit: Adjusted EBITDA is highlighted as positive (+$236.2M), yet GAAP loss from continuing operations widened to -$190M as expenses tripled to $758M. The non-GAAP metric masks massive GPU depreciation, energy overhead, stock compensation, and pre-build go-to-market costs.
3. Extreme Price/Sales Multiple Anomaly (~88x TTM Sales)
๐Ÿ”ด CRITICAL RISK
Price / Sales: ~88x TTM Market Cap: ~$65B TTM Revenue: $1.36B Run-rate Multiple: ~28x
Discrepancy Audit: A market valuation of ~$65B on $1.36B TTM sales yields an extreme 88x multiple. Even when annualizing Q2 revenue ($582.3M * 4 = $2.33B), the multiple is ~28x. This leaves zero buffer for hardware delays or margin compression.
4. Street Consensus Price Target Ceiling (+0.04% Remaining Upside)
๐ŸŸก MEDIUM RISK
Current Price: $252.90 Consensus Target: $253.00 Analyst Coverage: 18 Analysts
Discrepancy Audit: Following today's +30.9% jump, the stock price ($252.90) has essentially reached 100% of the average consensus target ($253.00). Further upside requires analysts to raise targets upward; otherwise, fundamental buying upside is exhausted.
5. Short Squeeze Mechanics vs. Fundamental Re-rating
๐ŸŸ  HIGH RISK
Day Move: +31.0% Notable Short: Michael Burry Prior Close: $193.23
Discrepancy Audit: Scion Asset Management (Michael Burry) held a short position leading into earnings. A significant portion of today's +31% rally was mechanical short covering rather than fundamental institutional accumulation. Squeeze-driven rallies tend to chop once short interest settles.
6. H2 Execution Ramp Hyper-Dependency (+133% to +200% ARR Growth Ramp)
๐ŸŸ  HIGH RISK
Q2 Exiting ARR: $3.0B Year-End Target: $7.0B โ€“ $9.0B Required H2 Growth: +133% to +200%
Discrepancy Audit: Nebius must add $4.0B to $6.0B in ARR over the next 6 months to hit its reaffirmed $7Bโ€“$9B year-end target. This requires flawless data-center commissioning, grid interconnects, and Nvidia GPU deliveries in H2.
7. Single-Segment Revenue Concentration Risk (98.7% AI Cloud)
๐ŸŸก MEDIUM RISK
Group Revenue: $582.3M AI Cloud (core): $575.0M AI Cloud Share: 98.7% Other Segments: $7.3M (1.3%)
Discrepancy Audit: Nebius AI Cloud represents 98.7% of group revenue. Other businesses (TripleTen edtech, Avride autonomous driving) generate only $7.3M combined, making Nebius effectively a single-product GPU compute infrastructure pure-play.